
A deepening recession and difficult credit markets will continue to contribute to further weakening and declines in U.S. airport traffic throughout 2009, according to a special report released by Fitch Ratings today. Fitch's outlook for U.S. airports remains negative as the sustained economic downturn coupled with ongoing weakness of airline counterparties that are expected to remain present for 2009 into 2010 continue to be major factors affecting the health of the sector.
'Falling demand for air travel and capacity reductions from carriers continue to negatively affect the financial growth of U.S. airports,' said Seth Lehman, Senior Director at Fitch. 'The growing unemployment rate in the U.S. has taken center stage, with both business and leisure air travel remaining under significant pressure. Airports most at risk over the near term are secondary hubs, reliever airports and airports with a significant leisure component.'
Overall, Fitch expects rating downgrades to be mostly limited to one-to-two notches, as default risk in this sector is still viewed to be remote. However, the relevance of airline risk to airport ratings may become an increasingly important credit consideration for airports with high individual carrier concentration, particularly in cases where a carrier bankruptcy filing or liquidation would adversely affect service or cash flow stability. Fitch believes credit concerns may develop at airports with growing debt burdens or those that remain committed to large-scale capital programs, resulting in higher projected cost profiles.
With economic dislocations affecting air travel across most metropolitan areas, many airports will face greater difficulties in maintaining stable airline cost profiles, a stark departure from trends in recent years. Given the accelerated pace of traffic declines over both the latter part of 2008 and into early 2009, Fitch believes that the next one-to-two year period could be particularly testing as it relates to preserving current levels of financial performance.
Fitch will hold a teleconference on Thursday, April 2, 2009 at 3:00p.m. EDT to discuss airport traffic, revenue performance and the outlook for the sector. The discussion will be followed by a question and answer session - emailed questions can be submitted in advance or during the conference call to: cindy.stoller@fitchratings.com
To participate in the teleconference, interested parties should call (877) 713-4667 (domestic) or (706) 634-1958 (international) five minutes prior to the 3:00 p.m. EDT start time and give the title of the call 'US Airports Performance Update' or the call leader name 'Seth Lehman'.
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