DALLAS — At the Armbrust Aviation Group’s 2008 Jet Fuel Conference & Exposition held here in late February, the story was focused around high fuel prices and their causes. But despite being asked for 2008 forecasts, some presenters tried ducking out of making any firm predictions — a testament to the current volatility of the market. Looking forward, officials updated attendees on ongoing synthetic fuel initiatives.

“A year ago ... I made a prediction that came true, and I want to take credit for it,” says Ben Brockwell, director of data, pricing, and information services at OPIS, a comprehensive source for petroleum pricing and news. “When Britney Spears shaved her head, I predicted her hair would grow back. And indeed, her hair did grow back.

“I’m not in the business of trying to predict oil prices, but I am in the business of trying to help you understand where it may be.”

Brockwell takes a sunnier view of fuel pricing than some of the other panelists.

“I take a longer term view with oil prices,” Brockwell says. “A lot of times we get caught up in the moment and forget about the lessons of the past. Since 1973, we’ve had three important down cycles that have taken the price of crude oil to a dollar a gallon. The latest was 1999, and before that it was 1986, and before that it was in the early ‘70s. These cycles have lasted about 13 years.

“If that remains true for our current market, I would look at a period of 2010 to 2012 where we may see another correction. And so my view of the market is, sometimes we don’t look at subtle changes. We live in the moment. And the moment right now is ... it’s $100 crude oil, and people are saying it’s going to go up to $120 and $150.”

But Brockwell says it should get better. “I suspect we’re going to have cheaper prices on the horizon.

“My view of 2008 to 2009 is that transitions are underway. I think these are transitions that most people are not looking at.”