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They say the first, maybe worst, sign of insanity is the belief that others are controlling your life. If that’s true, I’m in, as George Bush the elder said, “deep doodoo.”

To paraphrase FedEx, I am absolutely, positively certain that I have less and less control of my life each year.

In aviation, the guvmint controls more space in more ways every year. I’m not saying that’s bad (or good), just that it’s true. TSA tells me what I can check, what I can carry on, to take off my shoes and unpack my computer. The airlines tell me to get there earlier, stand in lines longer, and squish up tighter. General aviation airspace becomes more restrictive and more complex. I have no control over any of this.

Outside of aviation, same thing. Between city, county, state, and fed, I spend much of my time paying and much of it trying to find out what to pay. I’m not even allowed to call the local U.S. Postal Service office, and that office can barely explain the new rates and the rules that determine what is a “standard” letter. Medicare? Social Security? Fageddabout it. In the first place, they don’t speak English but only some weird language that consists only of acronyms. If you actually put up with the telephone system, delays, and complications necessary to get an appointment with a Social Security person, she (if the Social Security System employs any males, I have never seen one) can and will explain the system and answer your questions very clearly. But only Mother Teresa ever had the serenity to put up with the process of getting the appointments, and she didn’t need to.

Telephone companies? Cable TV suppliers? Computers or, worse yet, computer people? Y’all, you might as well just give up. Hire a 12-year-old kid and let him/her figure it out. You ain’t gonna live long enough to do it yourself. If you do, your whole system (and you) will be totally obsolete when you get done.

That’s all I’ve got time for now. I think they’re coming to take me away.

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As the old song said, “Strange Things Are Happening.”

Thanks largely to the computer, it is easier than ever to shop for price. You name it, you can find out who is selling it cheaply. That has forced prices down to rock bottom on everything from cameras to hotel rooms. Sounds like a good thing to me.

But there is another side of the story.

Look at banks for example. Back in the dark ages (around 1970, I believe), the Truth In Lending Act required lenders to disclose to the borrower the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) being charged. APR was just the “real” interest rate. Before that, it was absolutely criminal the way interest rates were quoted and charged. Most of us, however, grew up with APR and have learned to see it spelled out in the loan application. That was a good thing. You could shop among local lenders for the lowest APR and that led to lower rates.

Then—within the last few years—banks became adept at adding fees along the way. You would be quoted a certain APR, then the fees would drive the total higher. And have you paid any loan even one day late recently? You wouldn’t believe the fees and even the raising of the interest rate for the balance of the loan.

Hotels did the same thing. They’d quote a rate of, say, $89 per night (I stay in cheap hotels) without mentioning fees like “gas increase fee” charged at checkout (I am proud to say I never paid one of those—I just said I called you, you quoted your price and that’s all you’re getting. They always knocked it off the bill.).

Recently, American Airlines announced a new fee of $15 for one checked bag. That allows them to quote low fares then collect extra money.

Here’s the rub. We tend to shop for the lowest price. These fees add a little sleaze factor to the bottom line. Further, they make it hard for even good suppliers to compete without the sleaze factor.

What we can do? Always, no matter what you are buying, ask for the total price, including any and all fees. Then ask questions about fines.

It won’t work perfectly, but it will help.

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Yesterday the headline on the first page, business section, USA Today, read “Foreclosures skyrocket 65% in April.”

Sixty-five percent. There were 65% more foreclosures in April of this year compared to the same month last year. Y’all correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought foreclosures were pretty bad last year—now they’re 65% higher.

Some think foreclosures will continue to rise into 2009, and possibly ‘til 2010.

If that doesn’t scare you, listen to this—Congress is working on this. Horrors.

I assume by now that everyone knows that the mortgage problem affects us all. When credit is tight, money is tight. When money is tight that hampers all of business.

Before I had time to become deeply depressed by the foreclosure info, comes today from The Wall Street Journal a WSJ News Alert. You won’t believe it—the headline announced “Housing Starts Post Unexpected Increase.” Holy cow.

The report goes on to say that home construction in April showed “surprising vigor, making the biggest increase in two years…” This after starts plunged by 13.8% in the previous month—that’s March of 2008. Unbelievable.

Furthermore, construction permits also rose. That seems to bode well as permits are acquired for future construction.

So, foreclosures up (bad news) and construction starts also up (good news). What’s a person to believe? I dunno, but maybe the people who invest in building have faith, but financing folks have no faith in those mortgages they sold to many poor risks in the past. Let’s look on the bright side.

In the meantime, I think maybe I want one of those “subprime” mortgages. Congress is talking about letting all those people who can’t pay their mortgages refinance with “federally insured” mortgages.

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According to a May 8 report from the General Aviation Management Association (GAMA) regarding aircraft delivered in the first quarter 2008, bizjet deliveries climbed 40%, turboprops grew modestly, and piston deliveries dropped sharply. Industry billings increased 16.1% to $5.3 billion, an all-time high for the first quarter.

So, what does all that mean?

Well, jet sales are climbing like a, uh, jet, while piston sales are hurting—actually down by 28% for the quarter. If piston aircraft make up your entire market, as they did when I was in the business and as is surely true even today for some dealers in some markets, then this is a horrible report. If you’re selling bizjets, then the sun is shining brightly upon your house.

Or is it?

It has been pointed out to me that current jet deliveries indicate past behavior. Most new jets are sold long in advance. (I remember years ago taking a tour of the factory in Savannah, GA, where the big, beautiful Gulfstreams were built. It was a surprise to me that many of the buyers sent an expert—an engineer, maybe—to live in Savannah and follow the construction of their jet through the entire process.)

Perhaps a better question might be how are jet sellers doing right now? Are they taking orders? Or is everyone putting them off “until we see what the economy is going to do?” I don’t know.

Will piston sales recover? Who knows? Are they all of a sudden that unpopular or is it that smaller airplane buyers are just more susceptible to a weak economy? Probably both.

Will LSA help turn the tide for piston aircraft?

The only thing I know for sure is that the situation bears watching.

FLASH–This just in. I just now read in my new Fortune magazine that helicopter sales are soaring as the oil drilling industry searches frantically for more oil to meet high demands and prices. 

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Back in the old days, airlines went bankrupt but kept on operating. That let them stop paying on some debts and other costs, but continue reaping revenue.

Today, it seems airlines go bankrupt (and boy, have they gone bankrupt) and abruptly cease operations immediately, if not sooner—no flights, no revenue, nothing. There was an exception or two in the latest spate of airline bankruptcies. At least one airline kept operating, but I forget which one.

I have not read any comments about this increase in bankrupt airlines that cease operation. It seems logical to assume (there’s that dangerous word) that direct costs—mostly fuel—make it impossible to operate even with the reduced costs possible under bankruptcy. If you still lose money on each leg under bankruptcy, why bother?

Please remember this is a question, not an answer. I’d like to get comments from those who know the facts.

Funny thing about cost and revenues. Usually, the goal is to calculate costs in advance then decide if the market will allow you to make a profit. If it won’t, why get into the business? If you’re already in the business and the numbers prove you can’t make it cheap enough to sell it profitably, why not get the hell out? Reminds me of an old rock song from decades ago. One line “goes”—as the kids say—“GREAT GOOBA GOOBA! LEMME OUTTA HEA!”

Seems to me you can hear that desperate plea on the airways these days.

What a business.

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The Greater Northern Alabama Lying Pilots Hangar Flying & Coffee Drinking Society (GNALPHF&CDS) met on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, April 23, 24, and 25, 2008 at Mullins Restaurant in Huntsville, Alabama.

A little background is in order…

Jack Montgomery and I formed the society in 1986. Jack and I shared an office in Huntsville, and we started meeting for breakfast. Jack was a genuine retired rocket scientist and experienced pilot; I was a recovering aircraft salesman and brand-new professional public speaker and writer. Soon thereafter, Bill Broadway, high-time pilot and owner of a genuine high-tech aerial photography business,joined us. We were off and running.

Over the years the group waxed and waned, with a crowd on some days, just two of us on others. We shared information, knowledge, experience, rumors, and outright lies. Then Jack retired to Florida. Later, in late 2006, wife Gail and I moved to east Tennessee to be closer to Gail’s aging parents. That was a setback for the society—I’d like to believe it was because I was the leader of the pack, but actually it was because the society was more important to me than to the others.

This past week I had a speech in Huntsville, so the society met three days running. It was sorta like a reunion. On one day or another participants included FedEx pilot and LSA distributor Don Langford; USAir pilot Bob Hall; the good doctor Clyde (who has owned Bonzana, Baron, Mooney, Cessna, and Diamond aircraft); Matt Rainey, the guvmint employee who just helped put together the purchase of several hundred military helicopters; Bill Broadway and I; and a good time was had by all.

We also argued, discussed, and griped about the state of the aviation industry; rejoiced in the unbelievable current safety record of the airline industry; and worried about the likelihood of its continuance. We solved most of the problems, then opined, laughed, and lamented a myriad of brand-new problems.

All in all, it was business as usual.

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Last week I finally wrote about something that really did happen. Amazing. Usually if I write about anything that’s as good as a death knell. But not this time.

This week Delta and Northwest announced that they really will merge.

They will, that is, if they get through the maze of bureaucratic red tape set up by the guvmint, which has to decide things like will this merger reduce competition? Delta has, it is said, arrived at a working arrangement with their pilots, but that leaves the NWA pilots somewhat disgruntled. That has to be settled.

In the meantime, some financial guru has announced—yet again—that the airline industry cannot work as a business. Said they can’t make money unless the guvmint takes it over—then, I suppose it would run as smoothly and as profitably as AMTRAK—or the guvmint leaves it in private ownership, then just regulates the daylights out of it.

This argument has reared its ugly head for decades. In fact, for decades the guvmint really did try to regulate the business end of the industry. They were involved in routes and prices. Everything ran smoothly, but prices were so high—as one flight attendant of the era told me—that nobody flew except businesspeople and people going to funerals.

Warren Buffet himself—the sage of Omaha and one of the very richest people in the world—sold his airline stock a few years ago, saying that there is no way to anticipate the industry.

Others wonder why the industry can’t reliably and dependably make a profit. For example, why can’t they raise fares in the face of horrendous fuel prices?

I will ride NWA roundtrip from North Carolina to Indianapolis this week, so will come back an expert just as everybody else is.

In the meantime, I hope everybody will remember how well the guvmint has run everything else over which it has had control. Things like Social Security, Medicare, and, for that matter, Congress itself. Pitiful!

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The bidness news is full of rumors, reports and SWAGs about the possibility of a Delta/NWA merger announcement as early as next week. The Wall Street Journal is in on the reports, so I’m paying attention.

You might remember that this was talked of big time in past months, but the two airlines backed off until their respective pilots could work out an acceptable plan to merge pilot-seniority lists. That hasn’t changed—the pilots still can’t get together.

However, Delta, as I understand it, says the merger might be necessary anyway. Jet fuel is as high as a young fellow after his first six beers, and some say it is a situation of merger or perish. Bankruptcy does seem to be—as AIRPORT BUSINESS editor John Infanger tells it—the fashionable thing to do in the airline industry right now.

Trying to get a nonbiased version of the story is harder than cracking Brazil nuts with a damp sponge. It’d be easier to find out which of the neighborhood kids really broke your window. In fact, the kids would do a more dignified way of stating their case.

Pilots point out that merging the seniority lists this way or that can change their lives forever. I have a friend who has flown for USAir for 21 years. He is not now a captain and never will be. He says this is because of the merger of USAir and America West. He can explain it so I can understand it, but not well enough for me to explain it to anyone else.

On the other hand, many say that pilots are holding up the entire merger which, they say, is absolutely necessary to avoid bankruptcy. Pilots come back saying that’s not really true, it’s just management’s way of abusing pilots.

It goes on and on. Who is right? I’m not at all sure, but I bet I’m fixin’ to hear from both sides of the argument after this posting.

WAIT: HOLD THE PRESSES–UH, I MEAN THE COMPUTER. JUST MINUTES AGO IT WAS ANNOUNCED THAT DELTA HAS CUT A DEAL WITH ITS PILOTS. GO HERE.

Now, if NWA can do the same with their pilots, there might really be a merger.

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Following are headlines from page one in Tennessee’s Johnson City Press yesterday…

FINANCIAL FIX IN WORKS

Fed plan would overhaul regulatory system

Heaven help us!

Now let me state up front that this plan is not law, and may never be. In fact, the plan worried me so much that I called a top-drawer Clemson University economist with my fears. He said perhaps the best part of this whole plan is that most of it will never be passed. Treasury secretary Henry Paulson has a plan, it is true, but that doesn’t mean we’re stuck with the whole thing.

One wonders if this is just another of those election-year plans that pop up every four years as needed. Some of them are proposed, argued over until November, then quietly skulk off into the sunset after the election.

The scariest part of this plan is that it would put the guvmint “in charge of financial market stability.” Holy cow!

The guvmint is in charge of Social Security and Medicare already. Why would we put them in charge of anything else, much less “financial stability?” The guvmint dabbles in the medical market now in a jillion ways. Did you know the guvmint influences the number of doctors who enter the marketplace? Also, did you know that the guvmint limits the building of new hospitals—and even major equipment purchases by existing hospitals? You can’t just go build a hospital because you think it might be a good business. You have to get a guvmint permit, and that is not a rubber-stamp permit. Many are turned down, not for quality reasons, but because the guvmint decides the community does not need another hospital.

Holy cow again. In any other field it is realized that decreasing supply raises price (if you don’t believe it, ask OPEC) and that more competition lowers prices. The guvmint, however, will very politely explain why this is not true in the medical field.

Look around and you can find many examples of how the guvmint interferes in the marketplace in order to provide “financial stability.” As a nation our citizens still pay twice the world price for sugar because the guvmint decided we should. This was back in WWII, but the law still exists and is enforced. Didja ever wonder why most of our major candy manufacturers moved out of the country?

Please save us from any more guvmint protection.

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I got this story from a friend…

Bryan Townsend, a frequent flyer if there ever was one, says, when it came to getting through security, Birmingham, AL, was a welcome relief, if only because of two older women who checked IDs and tickets. They were, Bryan says, bright, cheerful, efficient, and friendly. He enjoyed and them and actually looked forward to seeing them. That’s rare, these days.

Now, TSA is handling that job, the two ladies are gone, the security checkpoint line is longer, and he wonders. For one thing, he wonders what happened to the two ladies. Bryan is a nice guy, and wonders if they were able to get new jobs at their ages in this market. He says, “I have always believed that people who do a job unusually well will move up in the world, but it surely didn’t work that way in this case.”

I called the Birmingham Airport and talked with a lady who was very polite and friendly. She explained that—as we all know—TSA is taking over checking IDs and tickets, and suggested that I call Mr. John Allen, spokesperson of TSA for the area. I did.

Mr. Allen—another friendly, helpful person, BTW—confirmed that TSA has “assumed responsibility” for checking “travel documents.” Then, as the southern expression puts it, he “’splained” it to me.

TSA has started using black lights and loupes (eyepieces such as jewelers use) to check travel documents. That requires training in techniques and procedures and it is considered that TSA needs to be in charge. (I suggested that they might also do some training in how to treat customers, and he seemed to agree.) To paraphrase the Bible, almost he did persuadeth me. Time marches on, and time will tell.

One good thing, he gave me a website—TSA.gov—that provides links including one for complaints.

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