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I’ve done way more than my share of ranting and raving about guvmint bureaucracy over the last few decades—particularly during the last few months—but now have been somewhat humbled.

Question: How many of you have taken the trouble to speak to a civic club in the past year? Have you been to a high school classroom lately to explain the benefits of the free market system? Have you studied up and spoken to any group at all about the role of aviation and your particular branch of aviation lately?

I have ranted and raved a lot more than I have educated and taught in the last few years. There was a time when I was called “Mr. Free Market” by members of the Chamber of Commerce, but that was years ago.

But the main source of my behumblement—if that’s a word—was an e-mail I got last week from “Robin,” whose last name shall remain a secret, inviting me to take a test on civics. Civics—how long since you’ve taken a test on that subject?

I took the test, and did pretty well on it, but not as well as I thought I would do.

Can anyone who states his opinion as often and as loudly as I possibly justify making less than a perfect score on a civics test? I wonder.

However, this test has been taken by many citizens and many elected guvmint officials. Can you guess—boys and girls—which group scored highest of the two? Surprise, surprise—the citizens scored higher than the elected officials.

Go to the site shown at the bottom of this column. Take the test yourself. After you get your score, go to the last page to compare your score with both groups.

I have already made one New Year’s resolution. In the first quarter of 2009 I will speak to at least one classroom and one civic club about the free market and aviation and/or civics and aviation.

And I will study up a bit on civics, even though I did make an “A” on that test.

http://americancivicliteracy.org/resources/quiz.aspx

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… and its 945 employees in Albuquerque can be thankful this week that they remain employed, at least through the reorganization process. The Eclipse filing comes on the heels of Dayjet, the OEMs biggest customer, liquidating under Chapter 7.

In October, Forecast International, a Connecticut-based market research firm, projected that production of the Eclipse 500 VLJ would come to a halt in early 2009. Turns out, they may be right.

Meanwhile, another prominent Eclipse 500 customer, Pogo, has been surprisingly silent in recent months. Pogo, like Dayjet, was to create an air taxi network utilizing VLJs, and has been high profile because it has former AMR/American Airlines CEO Robert Crandall behind it. A search of Pogo’s website shows that its last press release, distributed in March, concerned Pogo’s decision to pull its initial public stock offering.

The Eclipse Chapter 11 filing follows earlier layoffs, a brief period when it could not make payroll, and the exit of CEO Vern Raburn, the man who started it all. Current CEO Roel Pieper, in a statement, says that “it is clear that the sale of the Eclipse business through the Chapter 11 process was the right course of action to maximize the value of the business, secure its future and protect the best interests of Eclipse’s stakeholders, including customers, suppliers, employees, and creditors.” Eclipse plans to sell most of its assets — valued at some $100 million to $500 million — at a public auction in January, according to reports. The company reportedly has more than $1 billion in liabilities.

According to The Wall Street Journal and others, barring an offer from a higher bidder, Eclipse would be sold to an affiliate of its largest shareholder, ETIRC Aviation. (On the good news side, Eclipse was able to add 300 European aircraft orders to its books after the Eclipse 500 received certification from the European Aviation Safety Agency last week.)

The onset of Vern Raburn and Eclipse into the general aviation marketplace has injected quite a bit of enthusiasm during the past decade. It also inspired other manufacturers like Cessna and Embraer to introduce their own VLJs – moves that appear destined for a better level of success than the Eclipse Aviation experience. Alas, the flight of fancy that has been the Eclipse 500 may be coming to an end.

Thanks for reading. jfi

… much of the news for general aviation aircraft production has been negative. Must be time to put the rose-colored glasses in storage.

This year’s annual meeting of the National Business Aviation Association was noticeably downbeat, with an absence of new orders and new aircraft introductions. Since then, the manufacturers have begun to be hit by the turmoil in the financial markets. Mooney Airplane Company of Kerrville, TX has basically shut down its new aircraft production, laying off some 71 percent of its workforce, according to the local Daily Times. Hawker-Beechcraft has announced layoffs, and Cessna is cutting back on plans to expand bizjet production rates.

Not all the news is bad. It’s reported that this week’s Middle East Business Aviation show recorded some $1.5 billion in new aircraft orders, and forecasts for that region see the business aviation fleet tripling by 2025. Eclipse Aviation has brought back laid-off employees and is again distributing payroll checks. And, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association reports that a total of 2,977 airplanes were shipped in the first three quarters of 2008, valued at $18.2 billion, compared to 2,918 units valued at $15.1 billion during this same period in 2007. (Piston-powered airplane shipments totaled 1,646 units compared to 1,857 units delivered in the first three quarters of 2007, an 11.4 percent decrease. Turboprop shipments increased from 300 units in the first three quarters last year to 341 units in 2008. Business jet shipments totaled 990 units in the first three quarters of 2008, a 30.1 percent increase over the 761 units delivered during this same period in 2007.)

Yet, the latter numbers are really a case of yesterday’s news. Comments GAMA president and CEO Pete Bunce, “Notwithstanding these positive third quarter numbers for turbine-powered aircraft deliveries, our industry is experiencing difficulties due to the weakness of the global economy … [and] the uncertainty of financial markets worldwide is negatively impacting the entire aviation industry.”

Brian Foley, president of Sparta, NJ-based consultant Brian Foley Associates, cautions, “The record order books will not be as firm as OEMs would like to think, and we’re warning our clients to expect double-digit percentage order cancellations depending on the manufacturer.” He says that due to order cancellations and deferrals, worldwide new aircraft deliveries will peak a full year before others predict.   “For the next few months, OEMs will provide earlier delivery slots to solid contract holders as others cancel or are unable to make progress payments,” says Foley. “This will keep deliveries strong only for the rest of this year and next. Eventually the smart money will opt to keep their out-year delivery slots in hopes that the dust will have settled from the current economic situation by then.”

It will get worse before it starts to improve. Used aircraft values are also dropping, and the aviation services sector is experiencing a slowdown. We’ve been here before – the GA sector lived what could be called a depression from 1978 until the mid-90s. But it’s a different industry today, and that fact should help the sector weather the looming economic storm.

Thanks for reading. jfi

In August, 2008, I visited Steamboat Springs, CO, to speak for their big annual airport open house. I was impressed with the airport, the group who put the event together, and the hot air balloon ride they arranged for me. Joe Birkenbine—the fellow who hired me—told me they would treat me well, and by golly they did.

Now I have found out that the airport has received the 2008 General Aviation Recognition Award for the state of Colorado. Hey, can I pick ‘em, or not?

Does your state have a GA airport award?

Folks, the way things happen in Colorado is a good example for all General Aviation (GA) folks to study. In the first place, the award was bestowed by the Colorado Pilots Association, which has 700 members. Seven hundred members! Does the pilot association in your state have 700 members? That alone is a noble goal for all of us.

The club cited the long, tough road for survival the airport faced and won against many efforts to close it down. Airport manager Mel Barker was also cited for service above and beyond. The economic importance of the airport to the Steamboat Springs area was stressed and pilots who use the airport were quoted. The local newspaper wrote a great article on the award.

This is a great example of enthusiastic pilots joining together to recognize, honor, and publicize GA, and to educate the public about the GA role.

Would that it were so in every state.

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… isn’t always easy, but at LAX it may present a window of opportunity. So says Gina Marie Lindsey, director of the Los Angeles World Airports system and the subject of an upcoming cover story in AIRPORT BUSINESS magazine.

LAX has had minimal infrastructure investment since 1984, the year it hosted the Summer Olympics. It operates nine independent terminals, and its lack of standards for airline leases (some long-term, some short-term, some not at all) has led to DOT complaints and other assorted litigation. Gina Marie and her staff have made peace with the carriers, at least in the short term, and are heavily focused on developing and implementing a capital improvement program.

Regarding the economy, Lindsey says, “You bet I’m worried about it. But I think the industry is in a total revolution; this is a game-changer on what aviation is going to be in the future. For better or for worse, the economic situation has actually helped in a very narrow sense, because it’s brought down the price of fuel, the original offending element of what was causing the airline crisis.

“We can look at it a couple of ways. We could say this is a disaster because right when we need to have more traffic and more money coming in, we have a slowdown. Is this going to derail our capital program? My answer to that is no; our capital program is not predicated on expansion or additional traffic. The capital program is predicated on a need to replace facilities and to bring better customer service.

“To some degree, being able to have some of our facilities less used will give us a short-term window.”

LAX is a very tired facility overall. At a time when major cities worldwide have revamped their airports with state-of-the-art terminals, Los Angeles is only now getting with the program. It’s traffic this fall is down some 13 percent; having fewer passengers disrupted by major construction projects could be a good thing.

Thanks for reading.

Everyone wants to know; “What will Obama do about _________ (you fill in the blank)?”

We know from many sources that our president-elect believes in aviation as a transportation system, as an airline system, and as an FAA that needs improvement. But what does he think about general aviation (GA)? That’s corporate jets, Piper Cubs, LSA, and everything in between. I set out to learn for myself, and found it hard to find much specifically about Obama and GA.

I will make a prediction; Obama will be no friend to GA.

Obama is, by all accounts, a died-in-the-wool liberal. He believes in “share the wealth.” He wants to tax the rich and give to the less fortunate (my ancestor, Robin Hood did that, but not legally). Being a liberal is no crime, and evidently most Americans agree with Obama—the man did get elected.

I cannot imagine a man who wants to share the wealth being a true friend to general aviation. I still remember and can’t forget that Ted Kennedy—a pretty liberal fellow himself—wanted to ground all—repeat, all—GA during an early fuel scare.

It seems to me that people who believe in share the wealth must see general aviation as rich folks frivolously flying little jets while less wealthy folks ride the middle seat on airlines.

I imagine that a sincere liberal sees GA as crowding the airways and airports at the expense of the airlines and the general population. Would a liberal not believe sincerely that GA folks are elitists playing on the backs of the general public?

Remember, all of this is “as I see it” and as I “imagine.”

Sincere liberals believe that they know what the country needs, and that’s what makes them dangerous.

I am sore afraid.

… and the question in aviation circles is, what does that mean for the U.S. air transportation system? The political waters remain murky at this point.

First, stating the obvious, yesterday’s election is nothing short of a watershed moment in American history and once again demonstrates that anyone in this nation can become President … a good thing. It also hopefully will take some of the hatred out of the political winds in Washington, where beating up George Bush has taken precedent over legislating.

Political leadership has become an oxymoron under the Democrats in Congress, and it’s only logical to fear that more of the same is on the way. But in the battle to pass long-term aviation system authorization, the Republicans get their share of the blame for the legislation remaining in limbo. After all, it was the Bush Administration that adamantly pushed for new funding mechanisms that met with so much industry opposition. Despite that, a deal was almost reached in September until Harry Reid and friends stepped in and tried to tack on riders that had nothing to do with aviation.

Back in the mid-80s when I was working at the National Air Transportation Association, one of the VPs used to like to say that despite the fact that general aviation is a very Republican industry, it tends to fare better under the Democrats. We’ll see.

The Aircraft Owners & Pilots Association (www.aopa.org) recently did a Q&A with McCain and Obama, asking their positions on various aviation issues. The President-elect says he is a strong supporter of GA, wants the industry to be involved in FAA decisionmaking, and doesn’t believe in implementing a one-size-fits-all policy for security. He also says he is “firmly opposed” to privatizing the air traffic control system, saying it is a governmental function.

My favorite answer: “As a state senator in Illinois, I supported efforts to accommodate general aviation traffic at a third Chicago-area airport in Peotone, Illinois, after general aviation traffic was displaced from the closing of Chicago’s Meigs Field.” It’s safe to assume the answer wasn’t cleared through the offices of Chicago mayor Richard Daley, the man who illegally tore up the runway at Meigs in the middle of the night and who is the one person most responsible for holding up the new Peotone airport.

During this campaign season the Democrats and Obama did a lot of posturing about losing jobs overseas and a need to reexamine free trade agreements. But if there is an industry that is truly global, aviation is it. Opposing forces on a collision course?

At the very least, the election of a lifetime that seemed to last a lifetime is finally over. Let’s just hope that we get through the rest of the week without Hillary Clinton announcing she is gearing up for another run in 2012.

Thanks for reading. jfi

I just spoke for the 50^th convention of the Kansas Agricultural Aviation Association (KAAA). I used to sell ag aircraft, so it’s always good to get back among the people and to see what’s changed in the industry and what has not.

Ag aviation—crop dusting, it is often called—is probably the least understood of all aviation segments. Many people still believe it is done by wild people in barely flyable old biplanes. Tain’t true.

In the first place, ag aviation really is a business—one of the most businesslike segment of aviation. And it is also a part—a vital part—of agriculture. Ag aviation uses special equipment not seen in other segments of aviation. You can’t stop at just any aviation shop or parts’ house and buy a spreader, for example, or a spray nozzle either.

The flying is, of course, different from other aviation fields. The ag pilot may or may not be able to fly an ILS to minimums, but he can do some things the rest of us can’t do. He can take off at max weight on a hot day, fly under a thick, cross-country power line, and spray a field of wheat or cotton while his airplane gets lighter with every pass over the field..

Interesting, I went to their programs early in the day, and learned things about bees, chemicals, certifications, and equipment. That’s the way it was 30 years ago when I was selling to the industry. Then at lunch I listened to ag aviators discuss the trials and tribulations of finding and hiring a new pilot. That’s exactly as it was decades ago.

At the banquet that night I found out that ag aviators are still great audiences. They laughed, roared, and bought books. I had more fun than anyone else in the room.

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