The Trouble with Avgas …
… is that fewer and fewer piston-aircraft owners are buying it. The latest hard number I can find comes from AOPA, which reported an 18 percent drop in avgas sales during the first quarter of 2008. As the price of fuel has continued to escalate, it’s safe to assume that number is growing.
AIRPORT BUSINESS was originally launched as FBO magazine in 1986; in 1993, we added airport managers into the circulation mix and changed the name to reflect the change. Shortly after our launch we added the popular ‘Fuel Watch’ department, which tracks monthly retail fuel sales and prices for jet-A and avgas at airports across the U.S. The numbers come from Avcard, which tracks its credit card sales and then provides us with composite numbers for various markets. The department has been quite popular with fixed base operations, other airport-based businesses, and airport managers.
As we put together our August issue of AIRPORT BUSINESS we came across an issue we hadn’t encountered before. The numbers on avgas sales in U.S. markets has so deteriorated that Avcard was unable to provide us meaningful numbers for most of the markets.
Meanwhile, surfing the Web this morning, I found two stories that relate: one tells of an environmental group that is again pushing EPA to force aviation to get the lead out of 100LL avgas; the other tells of the decline in general aviation in Australia, where fuel prices and the loss of GA airports are serving as catalysts.
Reading the tea leaves, it’s not difficult to foresee change on the GA horizon. Defining the change is a bit tougher. Will we see a category of aircraft (pistons) begin to disappear? Or will new engines and alternative fuels provide new opportunity and new growth?
A bigger question may be: Will the declining numbers in avgas sales lead to the decision by oil companies to quit producing the product? Of all the products that an oil company extracts out of a barrel of oil, avgas is at the bottom of the opportunity list.
Thanks for reading. jfi
It hurt reading that article… I own a Cherokee & a Comanche and the only worth is the fuel in the wings. They now sit in a hangar with my fingers crossed the fuel pricles come down. The victim: FBO, Corporate Flying using light twins, Recreational flying, small airports, and flight departments. Our flight schools are disappearing and traffic numbers are down meaning it is tougher to justify small airports. States are suffering fighting to stay out of a deficit and our fed gvt is over spending - and many local municipalities cannot affort capital improvements especially at airports which require ongoing maintenance. I hate it but I can see 50% of small GA airports leaving the market (closing), letting go of ongoing maintenance, or reducing services. And for those out there that think grant assurances prevent an airport from closing or cancelling maintenance - it has been done and if the money isn’t there communities don’t care what the FAA threats - the FAA is out of money too; they cannot afford lawyers and court time.
Our Avgas sales have declined and track almost precidely with your AOPA figures. Jet A sales are slightly up and pretty stable. The higher prices have created a higher demand for splits and partial loads which can push prices slightly higher but can also keep operators from reaching quite as deep into their wallets.
The perfect storm is aimed right at Avgas as we know it today. Rising prices and resulting decreased sales, growing pressure on refiners from the EPA due to lead content, and loss of storage space in distribution terminals to new bio fuels and ethanol. Lead free Avgas blends are proven, but not in high performance engines that consume a majority of the current volume. Warning - rough air ahead.
I absolutely concurr with the sales drop. We are a major seller of both Avgas and Jet A. Our 100LL sales are down 23.6% for the first half of 2008 while Jet A sales are up 69.8%. The writing is on the wall for Avgas. My guess is that 100LL will “evaporate” within 10 years.
Cannot agree as I have far less sales at my FBO that use AVCARD than other cards. I doubt if AVCARD makes up 1% of my sales. MY sales continue to climb 5-7% a year as they have for the last 4 years.