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Well, I had a blog all written for this week, then Benazir Bhutto, former two-time prime minister of Pakistan was murdered. (I refuse to say she was assassinated, because it sounds somehow more acceptable.)

I will now deviate from the norm…

I clearly remember when USSR dictator Joe Stalin died in 1953, although I was only 12 at the time. I asked Mother why there was so much news wondering and worrying about whom his successor might be. In my youthful naivete I just assumed that they would elect another leader and move on along.

Mother, who never missed an opportunity to teach a lesson about either God or democracy, explained. “That,” she said, “is one of the greatest things about America, England, and other civilized, democratic, countries. We have a peaceful process for selecting our leaders—and it works.”

I could see the wisdom of her statement then, and still agree with it today. Our system of passing the baton is a gift of inestimable value, and one reason that our business world can move forward with faith in the future—investing vast sums of money into businesses that don’t expect profits for years. Our own industry is a perfect example. People today are putting down deposits on proposed corporate supersonic aircraft that are not even scheduled for delivery until 2012.

The stability that makes this possible comes from our founders who were determined to build a country of laws rather than of men. Our constitution is the oldest governing document of a major country in the world. Long may it so remain.

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How come when I make a mistake it’s my problem and I have to solve it? However, when I buy something and the seller goofs up, it’s still my problem?

We have AARP prescription coverage. Have had it for more than a year, and they still can’t get the billing right. My wife spent forever on the telephone with AARP this morning because they messed up again. They told her that they couldn’t solve it and they told her, finally, what she should do to get their mess straight. Why is this?

When I was selling airplanes and I goofed, the customer expected me to solve the problem. It is the same selling speeches for a living. When I’m the seller, I get the problems, then when I’m the buyer I get them, too. Who worked this out? Is it written on a computer that I am always at fault?

Change of subject…

The guvmint has changed the mandatory age for airline pilots from age 60 to age 65. This has been a combative issue for decades. Then both houses of Congress signed the bill last week and Bush signed it the next day. Obviously, everyone agreed on it this time around. I wonder…

In the past, young pilots and most airlines seemed to fight any such change. I always suspected the airlines enjoyed replacing old timers with new hires that worked cheaper. Now airlines are running short of pilots. Do you reckon that had anything to do with the quick passage?

Like Andy Rooney, I wonder…

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… are all over the news, and it would appear we are an industry at a crossroad. With pilots, the answer lies in getting new trained bodies into the cockpit; with controllers, the answer lies in technology. However, in both instances, one has to wonder how much the aviation industry is competing with a world of technology in which new gadgets, new games, and new millionaires are the attraction.

The business of finding new pilots, of course, has changed within a generation. Time was, the military fed the system. Then came the G.I. Bill of the 1970s which brought a new influx of pilots from the Vietnam veterans ranks. Since that time, the industry in the U.S. has seen a multitude of small flight training firms depart, many driven away by skyrocketing insurance rates. Today, it is the university system in this country that has become the major feeder for the system.

An article this week in The Wall Street Journal says the shortage of pilots is worldwide, and reports that airlines are staffing their cockpits by reducing the number of hours required of new hires. Other recent reports show that the increasing demand for pilots from the surging aviation industry in China and India is having an impact. Then there’s the boom in U.S. FAR Part 135 charter activity and the ongoing robust state of corporate aviation – two traditional feeders of the airline network have an increasing demand of their own.

Regarding controllers, the picture is fuzzier because new technology offers great promise to eliminate, or at least significantly reduce, the need for humans. Muddying the picture is the fact that the union that represents FAA controllers, NATCA, wants to blame every ill of the system on a shortage of controllers. And, they’re still brewing over former FAA Administrator Blakey’s tough bargaining stance the last time the agency and NATCA negotiated the controllers’ contract.

Case in point: the recent report by the Government Accountability Office on airfield incursions that was highly critical of FAA’s management of the problem. The NATCA response from its president, Patrick Forrey, states, “This report provides yet another credible, compelling, and clear link between safety and controller fatigue, which is caused by staffing shortages and longer hours on the job. My question today is, how much more do we have to hear before the FAA is held accountable for the blatant disregard for safety it is showing by understaffing its facilities, working controllers past their breaking points, and refusing to work with us to settle an ongoing contract negotiating impasse that has created the largest mass exodus of both veteran controllers and trainees we have seen since 1981?” In fact, NATCA, with bitter taste still in its mouth, is opposing the nomination of Bobby Sturgell as Blakey’s replacement primarily because of his involvement with the last negotiating round.

Yet, when it comes to a controller shortage, FAA’s posture is that it’s aware of the issue and is addressing it. In a September 30 press release it states that FAA has exceeded its air traffic controller staffing targets by hiring more than 1,800 controllers during FY07, topping the 2006 year-end total by 256 controllers. As a result, the agency now employs 14,874 controllers. “We’re getting a lot of enthusiastic new recruits who are interested in becoming air traffic controllers,’ says Acting Administrator Sturgell. “Controller hiring, training, and staffing is a major priority and we are on track to meet future traffic needs.”

With pilots, the answer is clear – attract new students for a system that has a clearly identifiable need. With controllers, the modernization of the ATC system via NextGen will bring a system that’s not so heavily reliant on the human factor. NATCA refuses to accept this reality. It doesn’t help that the two bulls in this ring, FAA and NATCA, continue to butt heads rather than try to take a measured and joint approach to the reality of the need.

Thanks for reading. jfi

Surprise, Surprise!

Airline travel hit record highs over Thanksgiving, with very few problems. Dire troubles were predicted, but things went smoothly.

According to Forbes.com, there were four reasons:

1. Travelers are finally figuring out the new rules. Personally, I can’t remember how long it has been since people showed up at the airport not knowing that they couldn’t carry big pocketknives.
2. The weather was relatively good. Nobody is even trying to take credit for that.
3. Free airspace along the Eastern USA. As Bush predicted, that did help (everybody’s got to be right every now and then).
4. Proactive airlines. In other words, the airlines really are trying.

Forbes seemed to think this was a turning point—that maybe things will be a little better henceforth. I surely hope so.

In the meantime, one can still run into airline actions that make no sense at all. Many of these revolve around trying to get a ticket in the first place.

Last week I made a reservation for son Brett. He was riding; I was buying the ticket for him (with his money). First, I tried Orbitz, one of the companies doing a roaring business selling airline tickets to people who can’t stand dealing with the airlines themselves. For once, Orbitz got it so complex—seemed like they just couldn’t handle it when the buyer and the rider were two different people—that I finally gave up and called American Airlines.

American gave me a reservation good for 24 hours to give me time to double check with Brett. They even gave me a six-letter identifier so they could find the reservation quickly when I called back. I was right happy with all of this, until I did call back that night to buy the ticket. I couldn’t get a person. Instead I got a recorded voice that supposedly had the power of voice recognition. Um, the thing she said most often was, “I’m sorry, I did not understand…”

This recorded voice asked me every question imaginable except for the reservation identifier. She never mentioned it. She asked when my flight departed, what the flight numbers were, day of travel, cities traveling from—but never did she ask for the identifier they gave me to make it easier to find my reservation.

I finally ended up screaming, “A person. I want to talk to a person. Give me a damned person, you automatic maniac.” This confused her so much that she finally gave me a person. The person asked for my identifier and allowed me to buy the ticket.

Last week, to make a long story short, I expressed my doubts that any airline “Passenger Bill of Rights” would provide more benefits than costs. We received two comments doubting that I knew what the hell I was talking about.

First, my old and good friend Clyde McDonald’s comment included the following (see both comments in full on last week’s BLOG): “What is your plan for stopping illegal incarceration (by the airlines) on the tarmac for 2-6 hrs?”

Then Mark Mentzer’s comment stated in part: “The implication of your argument is that all regulation is bad—if so, your experiences as an airline customer must have been incredibly charmed. Oh, by the way, deliberately misspelling words to be cute is not an endearing habit.”

To both Clyde and Mark, I respond…

I do believe in regulation but also believe the best, quickest, and meanest regulator is the free market. The market doesn’t have to wait until umpty-ump committees meet, discuss, and eventually decide what to do. The market is meaner than that. It reacts immediately.

In this case, the market is already working. For example, I just flew across the country to make a speech. I drove a hundred extra miles to catch a flight schedule that minimized certain risks. The market has taught me that avoiding Atlanta and O’Hare (among others) will lower the risks of delays. Minimizing the number of legs lowers the chance of missed flights and misplaced luggage. I drove the extra miles to get a schedule that avoided those airports and that required only one stop.

These are actions I take—even at extra trouble to me—because I have found that they work. Most frequent flyers I know do the same things. Mainly, however, we drive the entire trip when possible, just to avoid the airlines. In the meantime, the airlines certainly do know that delayed flights cost them far more than they cost the customers, and I am convinced that they are working like beavers to solve the problems.

… why is it that the most powerful legislative body on the planet can be so impotent? Of course, much of it has to do with living in the current age of politics by division, or derision. The greatest fear of lobbyists has been realized: We are entering a presidential election year with no aviation bill on the table.

Who’s to blame for this debacle? I guess it has to be the party that controls the Congress, the Democrats — the aviation bill is not the only spending bill being held up. But then, it was a Republican-controlled Congress that failed for years to pass legislation to fund the explosives detection systems called for in legislation after 9/11. (It seems that issue is finally behind us.)

Of course, the aviation industry itself, as in years past, continues to convey a disjointed message to Washington. Light aircraft owners resist change, argue they have little impact on the system, and have a powerful lobbying group in AOPA that has a good track record of taking its grassroots message to legislators. Business aviation, too, argues that it has minimal impact on the system while having as its constituency people who make a significant impact on the nation’s communities. And there are the airlines, which don’t want to pay for anything and want general aviation to help pay the bill for a system that was really created for them.

At the end of the day, industry in-fighting merely sends a disjoined message, not only to Congress but to voters as well. Just look at the debate over air traffic control modernization – some in aviation say that ATC is nearing a system-wide breakdown; others argue it’s not broken and we continue to operate the largest and safest system in the world.

And, about the time we all think we know who the players are and their positions, Senate minority leader Trent Lott, a major player with the Senate’s aviation bill that hasn’t passed, announces his resignation. It is indeed a sad state of affairs.

Thanks for reading. jfi