Biggest Little Trade Show?
The VLJ trade show in Charlotte last month was fascinating—not for its size, but for how well it covered one market.
This show was small. The whole thing took place in one hangar at Wilson Jet Center. It didn’t begin to compare with NATA, NBAA, or any other mega aviation groups. But, by golly it covered the VLJ market.
Sponsored by aviation manager and sales center Jetpool, LLC, of Charlotte, and Bank of America, the show took full advantage of the fact that the VLJ market is small in numbers but potentially big in bucks. I think they originally planned to attract about 100 attendees—they got more than 600 “gawkers and tire kickers.” And I can vouch for the fact that some of those were real buyers.
Exhibitors were there, too. Name a VLJ manufacturer and chances are they were there—Eclipse, Cessna, Honda, Embraer, Adams Aircraft, Spectrum, and Diamond. I wonder if a tradeshow has ever before had on exhibit such a high percentage of the total market.
Then there were the workshops—all were designed to help VLJ owners purchase, manage, finance, insure, and/or fly a new VLJ. The workshops were well attended and—judging from comments/questions—the subjects covered were right on target.
The attendees weren’t the only happy folks there. I questioned each of the exhibitors, and they all told me it was a good show for them, they were glad they came, and they will come back if it becomes an annual event. Jetpool CEO Ryan Stone was delighted, and justifiably so—a show can’t get much better than that. (I gotta confess—I left my wife’s digital camera at the show, and didn’t even know until days afterwards. I thought it was in my computer case. You can bet your last dollar that I was in the doghouse bigtime. A panicky call to Ryan Stone confirmed that they had found it, they still had it, and they would (and did) mail it. I like those people.)
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Marc–
Your facts seem dead on to me, and I don’t know how the market will react. Currently, the experts seem convinced that the big market for VLJs will be owner-flown, not corporate or charter.
We shall see–in the meantime, it surely is iunteresting to sit back and watch.
Thanks for writing,
Ralph Hood
I’m an aircraft broker. Since Ralph has always been a “no b.s.” kind of guy, maybe he will be the first to tackle this concept: VLJ’s, once built in significant numbers, will TANK the small turboprop market.
Who’s going to buy a King Air C90GT for $2.9M when they can have two VLJ’s for that price?
Who’s going to buy a Baron G58 or Piper Malibu for just under $1M? (Rather I see two potential new Baron owners joining together to buy one VLJ.)
Piper Meridian ($1.9M)? Socata TBM-850 ($2.8M)? To believe these can survive against a $1.5M VLJ is just naïve.
The public, and pilots, have already voted on the jet vs. prop thing twice before, and props lost both times: first with larger passenger airliners, then with RJ’s. When given a choice, people will vote for the jet for the same or less money EVERY time!
And it’s not just purchase price which favors VLJ’s: because of their superior speed, the per-mile operating cost of most VLJ’s will beat the King Air C90GT and maybe even the single-engine turboprops.
“Oh, but the cabin is bigger.”
That may matter for some purchasers of King Air 200 and 350-sized airplanes, but in the C90GT, one must remember that VLJ passengers will be spending up to 50% less time in their admittedly-smaller cabins because jets are so much faster.
Yes, I think the King Air 200+ sizes will survive—particularly overseas–because they are significantly faster than the C90GT, have roomier cabins, and can operate from unimproved strips. But, at $5M for a new King Air B200 and $6.1M for a 350, one should assume the plethora of “big” VLJ’s now under development for around $3M a copy will knock even the big King Air market to its knees.
Remember, Eclipse claims that, using automotive industry technology, it will be able to build up to 1,500 airplanes a year…FIFTEEN HUNDRED, people! Even if they only build half as many, that’s a feat never before matched in the history of the jet. Such a feat would have serious, serious implications for the industry. And we’re only talking about one manufacturer!
Logically, it appears this would be a good time for most small operators to fly a well-used turboprop until their VLJ’s arrive, then never look back. But that means it’s a lousy time to buy a new turboprop unless you have very specific needs that only a turboprop can fill. (Of course, we all know that those who can afford multimillion dollar airplanes aren’t always logical about their purchases.)
All I know is, being a salesperson for a VLJ manufacturer sounds like a dream job: just show the numbers to turboprop buyers and they’ll beat a bath to your door.