Meanwhile, in Park City, UT …
… the Boyd Group of Englewood, CO was hosting its 11th annual Aviation Forecast Conference. Broad brush, one message is that 50-seat regional jets are on their way out — not unlike the quick departure of turboprop commuters in the early 1990s … which, of course, were replaced by the 50-seat RJs.
Mike Boyd, centerpiece of this event, likes to take a brash approach to airline forecasting, which is what this meeting is about. Yet, he also likes to take a very studied approach. Track the records. His team’s forecasts are a bit more brazen, a bit more in your face, and often accurate. He gets his face on CNN a lot.
He saw RJs coming; he saw (sees) RJs going – at least the smaller ones. Among the high-powered airline and OEM execs presenting, not one argued the point. (Of course, at 8,200 feet where the meeting was held, a case can be made for a lack of oxygen.) Therein lies the rub, at least for smaller communities. According to Boyd and others, the expectation is that the 50-seaters will be replaced by 70-seaters and larger as carriers ‘right size’ markets and airplane economics. Sounds good from an airline financial point of view. But for some communities, that 20 seats can make a difference in how a carrier views a market. Boyd asks, What is the strength of your feed into a hub? A cornerstone to his argument: He sees the hub-and-spoke carriers leading the charge in 2007 and beyond.
Thanks for reading. jfi
John, seems to me the larger RJs will almost certainly have an adverse impact on small community air services. But could it do something positive for the proposed taxi services? Miriam
Boyd is a visionary and not afraid to say what is on his mind–which more often than not turns out to be correct. Frankly, from an airline pespective, the handwriting is on the wall for smaller airports. If they can’t handle an extra 20 seats on a sustainable basis, well, they aren’t going to be happy because the service isn’t going to make it. A majority of small airports are within an hour and a half drive of an airport located in a population density that can sustain the seats–that’s where the air service will be. Simple economics. It won’t make the Mayor happy, but that’s business.
I wish there was more interest is what happening in the emerging markets rather than just looking at the US. Look at what is happening in India- about a 100 new turboprops ordered. A 50 seater is very much ‘in’. and so it is with the 70 seater, and the 15 seater, and the 180 seater etc.