AirportBusiness Blogs

The safest five-year period in U.S. airline history ended abruptly Sunday morning in Lexington, KY.

By now we know the details and several of the theories. It seems to be fact that the Comair flight tried to take off on the wrong (short) runway. The experts are now working to figure out why, and how to make sure it never happens again. I spoke for the International Society of Air Safety Investigators—NTSB is a member—last year, and never met an aviation group that impressed me more. I trust these folks.

Accident investigation is something we do well in this country. The truth will out, changes will be made, and airline travel—already the safest means of transportation in the history of the world—will become even safer.

For example…

In December 1974, TWA Flight 514, cleared for the approach into Dulles, flew into Mount Weather with no survivors. Because of that accident, ATC procedures for clearances were improved greatly, and rare is the serious pilot who has not studied that accident during training.

In 1977 a Southern DC-9 left Huntsville, AL for Atlanta, hit severe weather, ingested hail, had a double engine failure and crashed with many fatalities. Most of what you know about radar attenuation dates from that crash. I don’t remember even hearing about attenuation before then.

Professional investigators will learn the truth, and we will all benefit from the knowledge. In the meantime, let’s be patient and let them do their work.

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… there is enthusiasm, and skepticism. This came through loud and clear during a recent week in Chicago and Oshkosh, WI. At the annual Oshkosh AirVenture show, put on by the Experimental Aircraft Association, the very light jets were the story. Eclipse received its temporary type certificate from FAA in a highly publicized moment, and Honda introduced its VLJ entry, the HondaJet. For the VLJ manufacturers, the orders are there; the financial backing is there.

But what is the potential?  A number of companies foresee a network of air taxis around the country, utilizing VLJs. And, when it comes to VLJs, therein lies the real potential for the aircraft, say some. But when one considers the traditional model of business aircraft, this doesn’t fit. One answer is that VLJs will create a new market, ala the fractional ownership companies, who have different expectations. They’ll accept the fact that there are no onboard restrooms, and little room in which to work (a cornerstone of bizjets). 

Live in a market like Austin, TX, and you learn all about regional jets. They connect you to markets non-stop and they provide additional flight time options – three RJ flights a day versus one flight on a 737. But they provide a horrible environment for working. Using a laptop becomes pretty much impossible. And therein lies the key question about VLJs. 

In Chicago, an interview with Andy Priester reinforced this thought. Andy is the third-generation COO of Priester Aviation, a prominent charter firm for decades. Priester isn’t considering any VLJs for its air taxi business, at least not yet. Says Andy, “What I don’t know is the level of creature comforts that those people are going to demand. Will they be willing to live with the lack of creature comforts, just because of the size of the VLJs, and still be willing to pay the price? I’m not suggesting that they won’t be; I just think it’s going to be interesting once the model is started, what type of response they’re going to be getting.” One thing is clear: It’s a different aircraft, a different market, a different business model. 

Thanks for reading. 

jfi  

Last week I flew an 864-mile roundtrip on the airlines instead of driving. Wish I had driven.

Location, location, and location are the major factors in real estate. For airline travel major factors are hassle, hassle, and hassle, particularly at ATL.

Let it be noted that I think the airport management at ATL does a remarkable job of trying to do the impossible. The airport simply has too much traffic. They just opened a new runway (the original estimated cost was $1.2 billion—wonder what it really cost?). Near as I can tell, the new runway just allows them to make even more people miserable.

My arrival gate was at the south end of T Concourse, my departure gate at the north end of D. In between were so many people it seemed to rival Times Square on New Year’s Eve, except that the crowd at Times Square is happy. My departure gate was changed not once, but two times. Then the flight was delayed. (By the way, my inbound flight to ATL was held on the ground at HSV before takeoff because of “heavy traffic in Atlanta”.)

I have avoided ATL for years just because any glitch at any airport in the country seems to cause big time, heavy-duty delays at ATL. On this trip there were no glitches elsewhere, but ATL, having reached new levels, no longer needs outside help to make thousands of people miserable routinely.

I’m not going back unless it is absolutely, positively necessary.

I’ve written it before, now I believe it more’n ever: Atlanta desperately needs a second airport. Not another runway, but an additional airport.

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After a big story like last week’s foiled terrorist plot—which come first, the jokes or the conspiracy theories? I don’t know, but the conspiracy theories do come fast and furious.

It’s hard to believe so many theories can come so fast from a plot that failed. The most believable might be the theory that the terrorists planned all along to get caught, because all they want is publicity. I could almost believe that one except for the realities of 9/11, et al.

I have heard that it was a plot by Dick Cheney to further his oil interests, but nobody ever explained how that would work. Then others say Cheney was mad because Halliburton didn’t get a certain big contract recently.

One pilot told me—jokingly, I hope—that it was a Procter & Gamble plot to increase demand for shampoo and other liquid toiletries confiscated at airports. Still others say naw, it was a plot by the convenience store owners of the world. Yet another rumor has it that the flight attendants planned the whole thing to eliminate carry-on luggage. Or maybe the airlines did it for the same reason.

Then again, there is a strong argument that Bush did it to convince voters that we really are at war, and he was right all along. But Republicans say the Democrats did it to show how Bush got the world mad at us.

My personal theory? Fidel Castro teamed up with Elvis (you did know he’s not really dead?) just to detract attention from the fact that Fidel really is dead. Or did the Dixie Chicks do it because they are so ashamed of Bush?

In any event, new restrictions came furiously for a few days but are now easing just as rapidly. Son Brett left today for London, and they let him carry on—repeat, carry on—a violin, if you can believe it. I don’t know if I’d want to walk through either London airport as an American toting a violin case. Smacks too much of Al Capone to suit me.

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… well, perhaps not yet. Consider: The 9/11 attackers brought packaging knives; we banned them. The shoe bomber wanted to light his shoes; we banned lighters. Now, it’s liquids. The question is – in James Bond-esque terms – what happens when the terrorists figure out how to create clothing that can be detonated? Is it unrealistic to think that if we can make plastics explode, and liquids, it’s only a matter of time until clothing can be woven with the right mix to facilitate bringing down an airliner? 

The point is not that reacting to these threats is frivolous. It’s vital. But we have to come up with a new way of approaching the problem. It’s 2006, and we’re still trying to install in-line luggage screening systems mandated in 2001. The terrorists, meanwhile, continue to grab any new technology or formula they can, and we’re forced to react. We’re thinking about how to redesign terminals – with some trepidation — and they’re moving on to new threats. While much of the solution rests with geopolitics, for airports the answer lies with a new paradigm. Something that facilitates movement, accommodates passengers and airlines, but is flexible enough to adapt to the next emerging threat. The answer isn’t here, but the question is.  The industry most likely faces a whole new regimen when it comes to processing the customer. The time has come for an entirely new way of addressing how we react … and maintain daily security and through-put. After 9/11, airports objected that they were not consulted. One hopes it is now apparent that we need all minds working on this one. Thanks for reading.  jfi  

“Here We Go, ‘Round Again…”

Front page, center, USA Today on Tuesday, August 8:

“Airlines to add year-end capacity. Fliers could see relief from rising airfares.”

Lord, Lord. They finally make a profit, after all of the bad years, and the first thing they do is raise capacity (that means adding airplanes, of course)! Who was it who said that the airline industry can’t stand prosperity?

The USA Today article states that “decisions to add seats generally reflect greater optimism in the industry about its prospects for making money.”

Humphf!

Does anyone remember what Warren Buffet said about the airlines way back in his annual report to stockholders for 1992? “We have no ability to forecast the economics of the investment banking business, the airline industry, or the paper industry.”

Folks, if Buffet, the Sage of Omaha, can’t forecast it, I’m scared of it. If I had given Buffet $10,000 to invest back in the 1960s, I would be an insanely wealthy man today. (Of course I did not have $10,000 in the 1960s nor did I know who Warren Buffet was, but I am still greatly impressed with his history).

According to all the financial experts, the airlines are making a profit now to a great extent because they—painfully—cut capacity.

Is it really time to increase capacity? It seems like a risky time to “bet on the come,” as the old saying goes.

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… despite the topsy-turvey world of fuel prices. Admittedly, the avgas sector is static at best, per discussions with fuel providers. But the jet-A burners are pushing continued growth for GA, evident at the just convened AirVenture — or ‘Oshkosh’ – hosted annually by the Experimental Aircraft Association. Attendance (625,000) was down some 10 percent … again, those fuel prices. It’s reasonable to account that drop to apprehension on the part of autogas drivers. Yet, 65 countries were represented; 868 media reps; over 2300 show planes and a total of 10,000-plus aircraft on the airfield grounds. Hottest news items: - Cessna’s announcement that it’s looking to the development of a light sport aircraft (LSA) for what has been called the fastest growing sector of general aviation. It’s also the likely future starting point of many pilots. With the increasingly negative news on the industry’s ability to refill the pilot ranks in the future, the LSA segment could become very significant. 

- HondaJet is officially here, with the announcement that Honda Motor Company is working on FAA certification and the creation of an alliance with the Piper Aircraft network for distribution. The HondaJet is tied to testing in Greensboro, NC, by Honda of a turbine engine in partnership with GE. 

- Eclipse was awarded its provisional Type Certificate for the Eclipse 500 very light jet. Administrator Marion Blakey echoed the thought of many when she told the EAA audience, “What I have in my hand is probably the most significant piece of paper in America today, a piece of paper that will truly change the face of aviation.” 

- Blakey also reiterated her position that piston aircraft users would not see an increase in user fees, should the current formula for funding the Aviation Trust Fund be altered. A panel of GA associations took the dais to reiterate their opposition to any change in the current funding formula.  Thanks for reading.   jfi